Global System Outlook – Trends, Risks and Scenarios

By

Velina Tchakarova

This is a short handbook about my Global System concept I have developed over the last ten years. It helps me cover geopolitical and geoeconomic trends, outline possible trend developments regarding the key state and non-state actors, assess probable risks and develop scenarios for the future. The Global System will be facing a general process of decline due to a global economic slowdown, stagnating trade and deteriorating globalization, but also because of worsening political and socio-economic indicators following Covid-19 crisis outbreak in 2020. At the top of the iceberg, I identify three systemic issues with the greatest potential for disruptive impact and possible unintended consequences.