Do you want to win your bowl pool? Do you wager on college football totals?
The Power Rank 2015 Bowl Season Cheat Sheet provides computer predictions for spreads and totals in all 40 bowl games. These calculations are based on points and yards based metrics, with schedule adjustments made by a proprietary algorithm.
These computer predictions have picked the winner in 76.5% of college football games this season. Against the markets, these numbers went 50.7% against the closing spread (357-334-17).
Since week 6 of the season, the computer predictions for totals have won 55.3% against opening totals (256-207-5) and 51.1% against closing totals (233-223-5).
However, these numbers do not tell the entire story. When the predicted total differed from the opening total by more than 4 points, the market total moved in the direction of the prediction 95.6% of the time (129-6, with four totals that didn’t move).
On average, the final total moved 3.6 points in the direction of the model prediction. Some refer to this as closing line value.
The cheat sheet also provides a list of games sorted by win probability, which will help you pick games in a confidence pool.
"Can't stress enough the value I'm getting from your power rankings and your appearances on @beatingthebook's podcast."
-- unsolicited praise from Dan St. Pierre on Twitter during bowl season, 2014
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