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The Pick Report - The Data Science Behind Predicting Interceptions

Predictive football models have come a long way. But what do they not consider?

Turnovers. These plays can tip a game, as a regression analysis shows that an interception is worth 5 points. For a stretch of games, a quarterback might get lucky as defenders drop passes that hit them in the hands. Points based metrics do not account for this luck and will overrate the offense.

Unfortunately, interceptions are notoriously difficult to predict. For example, the correlation of interception rate for an NFL quarterback from one season to the next is low. Interception rate is not sticky from year to year.

Predicting interceptions requires a deeper dive into the data. The Pick Report reveals this new research, which includes:

  • How to calculate skill vs luck, and what this says about interceptions
  • The hidden variable in the play by play that helps predict interceptions
  • The rate statistic as sticky as any NFL quarterback metric that only you will know about
  • The relationship between interceptions and three point shooting in basketball

There is no shortage of preseason football magazines. These products cover every team, sometimes from a numbers based perspective, for $19 to $29.

The Pick Report is not a preseason magazine that covers every team. Instead, I spent months using my Ph.D. level research skills to find an edge by predicting turnovers. In this report, the crucial results get distilled into the fewest possible words.


"As someone who studies football for a living, it's extremely valuable to have other people in the industry who you can trust and bounce ideas off of. Ed's analysis is one of the first I go to on a week-to-week basis, and should be one of yours as well."
-- Dr. Eric Eager, Pro Football Focus


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The Pick Report - The Data Science Behind Predicting Interceptions

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